Let's Talk About North Korea

Dear Friends,

You yourself may have recently given the North Korean authoritarian regime some power by reading stories about them in the news and responding with a little fear or curiosity. In the nicest possible way, please don't.

Here's my take on the situation, alongside some public opinion:

In my opinion, North Korea is really just going on the defensive, and they're all talk.

Some background: In December, Kim Jong Eun assumed leadership of the regime after his father's death. In the same month, South Korea held its own democratic election, resulting in a new president being chosen. She was inaugurated in February of this year.

In my opinion, this is a time of testing for both countries.

In the North, Kim Jong Eun is trying to prove to his people that he's the one in charge, and that he's fully capable of commanding an army and the national psyche. In the South, Park Geun Hye is making good on her promise to take a hard line with their bad neighbour. As a result, it looks like both sides are headed for an intense clash.

Now, you've probably heard that the North has a nuke pointed at Seoul or something like that. Is it true? Maybe. It's not practical though, since they have loads of artillery within range of Seoul anyway. Why use a nuke, when regular shells will do?

But would they actually do it?

Pretend you're in the average North Korean mind. You would be reading and hearing about how the South and the States are coming to attack you, and your government is probably cutting and pasting news articles about how the States is beefing up missile security in Japan or how the South is readying its own armies. It looks like they're the aggressors! (I might add, in North Korean history, they always have been)

In response, what the North is doing looks perfectly normal . To us it looks like aggression, but to them it's self-defense.

Now in regards to all these threats they're making--will they deliver? Well, honestly, I'm not sure. But if you think about it, if you were really out to get someone, I mean really, would you keep giving them warnings and threats before you went after them? It sounds awfully... considerate of North Korea to be giving South Korea all these warnings (like, "Advise foreign citizens to leave now", "We will be cutting off military communication lines now" "We are closing the Kaesong Complex now", etc.). If you wanted to attack, then attack!

But then it comes to this, which is something I've been pondering lately. What would happen if a conflict broke out? Let's say something similar to the shelling of Yongpyeong Island (a small island a few hours Northwest of Seoul), or the sinking of the Cheonan.

If the North started it, would the South use it as a chance to conquer the entire country and unify the peninsula? or would they just end the conflict and leave the border as it is?

If the South started it, would the North use it as a chance to "fire everything" at the South? Would they try to invade? Would the North Koreans believe themselves to forevermore be victims of the South's aggression, and resist their presence in the North?

Both sides are prepared for war, but both sides don't really want to risk it. To the South, they would risk losing lives, but the reward is actually quite small. If you think about it, if the South conquered the North, they would gain a dramatically larger (and much needed) amount of space (and all the minerals and natural resources that the Southern half of the peninsula is sorely lacking--an unfortunate geographical occurrence). However, the amount of work and money that would be required to bring the country up to par with the South is simply incredible. You would have to train all these people how to use modern machinery in factories, how to use modern agricultural methods, you would have to care for them medically considering all the nutrients they may have missed through famines and generations of hunger, you would have to school them on modern history and teach them a friendlier way to interact with outsiders, you would have to repair their buildings, their roads, their schools and airports, etc. Contractors would stand to gain a fortune, but it's an expensive bill for the taxpayer.

I digress.

The point is this: there's a lot of talk coming from both sides, but that's exactly what it is, talk.

There are very few people here who are legitimately concerned about this whole thing to start packing their bags. After all, this sort of sabre-rattling has happened before. In fact, it's happened so much that the general public is indifferent or unafraid of their noisy neighbour.

So please, if you're worried about the safety of a loved one in Korea, rest assured that everything will more than likely be fine. We have good missile defense and a standing army. Our embassies are ready to contact us with appropriate instruction in the case of emergency, and we've all registered our stays here, so our governments know where we are. We do not need to come home, we do not need to give the North any more psychological power over us.